New addition: BBNI

  • Entry Price: 7,100, Target Price: 10,150

Removal: BTPN

With BTPN’s share price exceeding my target price, I decide to remove BTPN from the model portfolio. I believe BTPN’s current fundamentals do not justify its current share price, although I acknowledge that the share price reflects the potential upside from a merger. BTPN have been facing a difficult time with low to negative loan growth, and will face even more near-term difficulties after the 100bps rate hike by Bank Indonesia, given its low CASA ratio of just 12.6%.

Maintain: DSNG, MTDL, TBLA

DSNG

Changes to previous forecast:

  • Lower CPO ASP assumption of Rp7.4million/ton
  • Higher interest expenses with the strengthening US Dollar and higher interest rates

Screen Shot 2018-07-06 at 1.52.50 pm.png

MTDL

A weakening Rupiah can be negative for MTDL which distributes imported products, but history does not indicate so. MTDL was able to maintain its net profit in 2015 & 2016 when the Rupiah experienced a large scale depreciation. Hence, I maintain my net profit estimate of Rp270bn for 2018F.

TBLA

Changes to previous forecast:

  • Higher foreign exchange loss of Rp174Bn reflecting a Rupiah depreciation against the US Dollar to IDR15,000/USD
  • Lower sales and gross profit due to the lower CPO price
  • Higher interest expenses due to the lower earnings expected in 2018F, which will require more debt for capital expenditures

Screen Shot 2018-07-06 at 1.55.52 pm.png

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